Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 4.370508 5.119513 5.947359 6.928688 8.058650 9.317368 10.824158
2025-09-21 3.168699 4.163221 5.381193 6.975469 8.999491 11.474902 14.722477
2025-09-28 2.416463 3.498281 4.942059 6.993346 9.813279 13.531100 18.776925
2025-10-05 2.100585 3.297556 5.012943 7.619524 11.441517 16.793093 24.793379
2025-10-12 1.773069 2.993791 4.858170 7.864797 12.529787 19.412373 30.226918
2025-10-19 1.526473 2.752918 4.736270 8.108902 13.609776 22.106184 36.048116
2025-10-26 1.295182 2.485094 4.515065 8.141070 14.333594 24.307586 41.331938
2025-11-02 1.067394 2.174929 4.164414 7.889636 14.536100 25.673505 45.400617
2025-11-09 0.867173 1.873636 3.774327 7.498603 14.427315 26.482813 48.596684
2025-11-16 0.737365 1.682256 3.551034 7.368511 14.746668 28.029277 53.175140
2025-11-23 0.636779 1.530213 3.376459 7.299139 15.156779 29.759744 58.227595
2025-11-30 0.587194 1.478054 3.392194 7.602983 16.307313 32.940316 66.204610
2025-12-07 0.518890 1.372896 3.286028 7.653200 16.986474 35.351975 73.079062
2025-12-14 0.457787 1.272792 3.175509 7.679942 17.625508 37.762863 80.219996
2025-12-21 0.404179 1.179907 3.065618 7.690874 18.230755 40.167248 87.587772
2025-12-28 0.397181 1.206538 3.239647 8.371395 20.366276 45.887945 102.170467
2026-01-04 0.366782 1.163582 3.237763 8.637860 21.609746 49.870825 113.537924
2026-01-11 0.339457 1.123442 3.236138 8.903719 22.881130 54.031502 125.653083
2026-01-18 0.304764 1.054089 3.147212 8.938655 23.613227 57.086026 135.666458
2026-01-25 0.262211 0.950821 2.949505 8.664347 23.565069 58.395695 141.970770
2026-02-01 0.220358 0.839350 2.708690 8.237696 23.082963 58.661882 145.952852
2026-02-08 0.193549 0.771178 2.579778 8.095725 23.302944 60.576671 153.865946
2026-02-15 0.172062 0.716109 2.479937 8.020012 23.684775 62.909347 162.955721